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Probability

3 sessions, in order

Three sessions on how badly human intuition handles probability, and how to fix it. Measuring genuinely rare risks with real numbers instead of gut feeling. Why new information can flip an answer that felt certain. And a mistake even trained analysts made for years: forgetting to ask what data never showed up at all.

1.S&CT-9The Dice LaboratoryStatistics & Critical Thinking~24 minHow do you measure a risk that's real but rare? Using probability and real data to size up danger accurately.
2.S&CT-8The Three Cups Game ShowStatistics & Critical Thinking~38 minWhy does new information change the odds, even when it feels like it shouldn't? Conditional probability and why intuition fights it.
3.S&CT-4The Bullet Hole MysteryStatistics & Critical Thinking~23 minWhy did engineers armor the wrong part of the plane? Survivorship bias: sometimes the missing data is the real message.